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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Trevor Peek won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1449
Elo1492
Trevor Peek

Erick GonzalezvsTrevor PeekUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Saturday, February 25, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Trevor Peek won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Style matchupErick Gonzalez: WrestlervsTrevor Peek: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Trevor Peek wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Trevor Peek wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Trevor Peek at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Trevor Peek is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Erick Gonzalez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Trevor Peek (52.9%).
  • Erick Gonzalez has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Erick Gonzalez
Red Corner
VS
Trevor Peek
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
1449
Elo
1492
34
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
5'9"
190.5 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erick GonzalezL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jim Miller · Oct 21
L
SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Aug 22
latest
Trevor PeekL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Chepe Mariscal · Jun 23
W
vs Mohammad Yahya · Oct 23
L
vs Charlie Campbell · Apr 24
L
vs Yanal Ashmouz · Sep 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erick GonzalezMetricTrevor Peek
2.40
Strikes / min
4.39
8.08
Strikes absorbed / min
3.88
40%
Strike defense
43%
6.00
TDs / 15 min
1.45
50%
Takedown defense
52%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-5.68Δ 6.19 — meaningful gap+0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1465 vs 1500Strikes2.4 vs 4.6Takedowns6.0 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Erick GonzalezTrevor Peek

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Erick Gonzalez(3 fights)Trevor Peek(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -43.6|Blue +43.6
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Grappler Score
Red -49.2|Blue +49.2
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erick GonzalezTargetTrevor Peek

By target zone

5
19% acc · 71%
Head
38
54% acc · 75%
1
100% acc · 14%
Body
8
73% acc · 16%
1
100% acc · 14%
Leg
5
100% acc · 10%

By position

7
25% acc · 100%
Distance
36
54% acc · 71%
0
0% acc
Clinch
9
75% acc · 18%
0
Ground
6
86% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Erick Gonzalez rounds
0
even
1
Trevor Peek rounds
Round 1Trevor Peek edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns4
Control2:15
Knockdowns0
51Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:16Control
2Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
7 / 29
Sig Strikes
51 / 86
24%
Sig Str %
59%
11 / 35
Total Strikes
51 / 86
4 / 6
TDs
0 / 1
66%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:15
Ctrl Time
0:16

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Trevor Peek51 / 8651 / 860 / 10
1Erick Gonzalez7 / 2911 / 354 / 60

Erick Gonzalez

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3

Trevor Peek

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights5