← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Sam Alvey won · SUB R1

Elo1374

Elo1431

Eric SpicelyvsSam AlveyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · Wednesday, July 13, 2016Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA

Official fight result

Sam Alvey won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:43

Style matchupEric Spicely: Submission grapplervsSam Alvey: Striker

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Alvey at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eric Spicely enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Eric Spicely has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Eric Spicely

Red Corner

Sam Alvey

Blue Corner

+235

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-275

(73%)

1374

Elo

1431

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eric SpicelyL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Thiago Santos · Sep 16

SUBvs Alessio Di Chirico · Jan 17

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Dec 17

KOvs Darren Stewart · May 18

vs Deron Winn · Jun 19

latest

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eric SpicelyMetricSam Alvey

3.71

Strikes / min

3.28

5.72

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

55%

Strike defense

52%

1.31

TDs / 15 min

0.06

75%

Takedown defense

82%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.01Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eric SpicelySam Alvey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eric Spicely(6 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -56.8|Blue +56.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +47.8|Blue -47.8

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eric SpicelyTargetSam Alvey

By target zone

80% acc · 57%

Head

46% acc · 75%

67% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

75% acc · 86%

Distance

50% acc · 63%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

75% acc · 38%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eric Spicely rounds

even

Sam Alvey rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:14

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 9

Sig Strikes

8 / 15

77%

Sig Str %

53%

8 / 10

Total Strikes

13 / 20

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:14

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sam Alvey	8 / 15	13 / 20	0 / 0	1
1	Eric Spicely	7 / 9	8 / 10	0 / 4	0

Eric Spicely

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23