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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gerald Meerschaert won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1374

Elo1457

Eric SpicelyvsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · Friday, December 1, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gerald Meerschaert won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:18

Style matchupEric Spicely: Submission grapplervsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Gerald Meerschaert wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Gerald Meerschaert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gerald Meerschaert at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Eric Spicely has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).
Gerald Meerschaert has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Eric Spicely

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1374

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eric SpicelyL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sam Alvey · Jul 16

SUBvs Thiago Santos · Sep 16

SUBvs Alessio Di Chirico · Jan 17

KOvs Darren Stewart · May 18

vs Deron Winn · Jun 19

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eric SpicelyMetricGerald Meerschaert

3.71

Strikes / min

2.95

5.72

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

55%

Strike defense

53%

1.31

TDs / 15 min

1.70

75%

Takedown defense

40%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.01Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eric SpicelyGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eric Spicely(6 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -82.9|Blue +82.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +161.0|Blue -161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eric SpicelyTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

54% acc · 88%

Head

39% acc · 83%

67% acc · 12%

Body

75% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

46% acc · 65%

Distance

40% acc · 92%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

83% acc · 29%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eric Spicely rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Gerald Meerschaert edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control3:34

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Gerald Meerschaert edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 31

Sig Strikes

36 / 85

58.5%

Sig Str %

42%

59 / 81

Total Strikes

45 / 95

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:41

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gerald Meerschaert	21 / 42	29 / 51	0 / 0	0
1	Eric Spicely	8 / 11	50 / 61	1 / 2	1
2	Gerald Meerschaert	15 / 43	16 / 44	0 / 0	0
2	Eric Spicely	9 / 20	9 / 20	0 / 3	0

Eric Spicely

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25