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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Darren Stewart won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1374

Elo1407

Eric SpicelyvsDarren StewartUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · Sunday, May 27, 2018Liverpool, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Darren Stewart won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:47

Style matchupEric Spicely: Submission grapplervsDarren Stewart: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Eric Spicely wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Darren Stewart wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Eric Spicely at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Darren Stewart enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Eric Spicely

Red Corner

Darren Stewart

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1374

Elo

1407

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eric SpicelyL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sam Alvey · Jul 16

SUBvs Thiago Santos · Sep 16

SUBvs Alessio Di Chirico · Jan 17

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Dec 17

vs Deron Winn · Jun 19

latest

Darren StewartL3 streak

oldest →

vs Deron Winn · Oct 19

SUBvs Maki Pitolo · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Sep 20

vs Eryk Anders · Jun 21

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Aug 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eric SpicelyMetricDarren Stewart

3.71

Strikes / min

3.05

5.72

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

55%

Strike defense

48%

1.31

TDs / 15 min

1.75

75%

Takedown defense

67%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.01Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eric SpicelyDarren Stewart

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eric Spicely(6 fights)Darren Stewart(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -32.9|Blue +32.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +15.0|Blue -15.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eric SpicelyTargetDarren Stewart

By target zone

17% acc · 73%

Head

33% acc · 76%

0% acc

Body

80% acc · 24%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

By position

20% acc · 100%

Distance

34% acc · 74%

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 12%

Ground

50% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eric Spicely rounds

even

Darren Stewart rounds

Round 1Darren Stewart edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:02

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Darren Stewart edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 75

Sig Strikes

34 / 90

20.5%

Sig Str %

38%

19 / 79

Total Strikes

34 / 90

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Darren Stewart	17 / 50	17 / 50	0 / 0
1	Eric Spicely	11 / 58	11 / 58	0 / 3
2	Darren Stewart	17 / 40	17 / 40	0 / 0
2	Eric Spicely	4 / 17	8 / 21	0 / 1

Eric Spicely

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Darren Stewart

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights12