Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Middleweight
3 Rounds
Eric Spicely won · SUB R1
Elo1374
Eric Spicely
Elo1434
Alessio Di Chirico

Eric SpicelyvsAlessio Di ChiricoUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Saturday, January 28, 2017Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Eric Spicely won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:14

Style matchupEric Spicely: Submission grapplervsAlessio Di Chirico: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Eric Spicely wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Eric Spicely wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Eric Spicely at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Eric Spicely enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Alessio Di Chirico is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Eric Spicely has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Eric Spicely
Red Corner
VS
Alessio Di Chirico
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
1374
Elo
1434
39
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eric SpicelyL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Sam Alvey · Jul 16
W
SUBvs Thiago Santos · Sep 16
L
KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Dec 17
L
KOvs Darren Stewart · May 18
L
vs Deron Winn · Jun 19
latest
Alessio Di ChiricoL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Makhmud Muradov · Sep 19
L
vs Zak Cummings · Aug 20
W
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Jan 21
L
KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Aug 21
L
KOvs Roman Kopylov · Sep 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eric SpicelyMetricAlessio Di Chirico
3.71
Strikes / min
3.32
5.72
Strikes absorbed / min
3.44
55%
Strike defense
61%
1.31
TDs / 15 min
1.46
75%
Takedown defense
83%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.01Δ 1.89 — meaningful gap-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1503 vs 1500Strikes6.0 vs 63.0Takedowns0.5 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs 0.2
Eric SpicelyAlessio Di Chirico

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Eric Spicely(6 fights)Alessio Di Chirico(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -60.6|Blue +60.6
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eric SpicelyTargetAlessio Di Chirico

By target zone

1
33% acc · 100%
Head
1
50% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
50% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 100%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Eric Spicely rounds
0
even
0
Alessio Di Chirico rounds
Round 1Eric Spicely edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control0:51
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:45Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 3
Sig Strikes
1 / 2
33%
Sig Str %
50%
5 / 7
Total Strikes
1 / 2
1 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
33%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:51
Ctrl Time
0:45

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alessio Di Chirico1 / 21 / 20 / 00
1Eric Spicely1 / 35 / 71 / 31

Eric Spicely

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6

Alessio Di Chirico

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights11