Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jordan Espinosa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1397

Eric SheltonvsJordan EspinosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · Saturday, March 23, 2019Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Jordan Espinosa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEric Shelton: WrestlervsJordan Espinosa: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Eric Shelton wins(70.9%)

Actual result: Jordan Espinosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Eric Shelton at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jordan Espinosa has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Eric Shelton

Red Corner

Jordan Espinosa

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1491

Elo

1397

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eric Shelton

oldest →

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 17

vs Jarred Brooks · Jul 17

vs Jenel Lausa · Nov 17

vs Alex Perez · Feb 18

vs Joseph Morales · Nov 18

latest

Jordan EspinosaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Matt Schnell · Aug 19

SUBvs Alex Perez · Jan 20

vs Mark De La Rosa · Jun 20

vs David Dvorak · Sep 20

vs Tim Elliott · Mar 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eric SheltonMetricJordan Espinosa

2.57

Strikes / min

4.22

1.88

Strikes absorbed / min

2.94

63%

Strike defense

57%

2.83

TDs / 15 min

0.75

46%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.69evenly matched on net striking+1.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eric SheltonJordan Espinosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eric Shelton(6 fights)Jordan Espinosa(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +94.6|Blue -94.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -47.9|Blue +47.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eric SheltonTargetJordan Espinosa

By target zone

26% acc · 72%

Head

30% acc · 40%

33% acc · 4%

Body

71% acc · 21%

67% acc · 24%

Leg

64% acc · 38%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 98%

0% acc

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eric Shelton rounds

even

Jordan Espinosa rounds

Round 1Jordan Espinosa edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Jordan Espinosa edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Jordan Espinosa edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 81

Sig Strikes

47 / 105

31.3%

Sig Str %

44.7%

25 / 81

Total Strikes

47 / 105

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jordan Espinosa	15 / 31	15 / 31	0 / 2
1	Eric Shelton	6 / 16	6 / 16	0 / 0
2	Jordan Espinosa	17 / 40	17 / 40	1 / 1
2	Eric Shelton	8 / 30	8 / 30	0 / 0
3	Jordan Espinosa	15 / 34	15 / 34	0 / 0
3	Eric Shelton	11 / 35	11 / 35	0 / 0

Eric Shelton

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Jordan Espinosa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6