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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alex Perez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1498

Eric SheltonvsAlex PerezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · Saturday, February 24, 2018Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Alex Perez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEric Shelton: WrestlervsAlex Perez: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Alex Perez wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Alex Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Perez at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Perez has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Eric Shelton

Red Corner

Alex Perez

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1491

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eric Shelton

oldest →

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 17

vs Jarred Brooks · Jul 17

vs Jenel Lausa · Nov 17

vs Joseph Morales · Nov 18

vs Jordan Espinosa · Mar 19

latest

Alex Perez

oldest →

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Apr 24

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Jun 24

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Nov 25

KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 26

vs Sumudaerji · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eric SheltonMetricAlex Perez

2.57

Strikes / min

4.41

1.88

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

63%

Strike defense

59%

2.83

TDs / 15 min

2.21

46%

Takedown defense

75%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.69evenly matched on net striking+1.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eric SheltonAlex Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eric Shelton(6 fights)Alex Perez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.9|Blue +6.9

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eric SheltonTargetAlex Perez

By target zone

31% acc · 73%

Head

23% acc · 52%

100% acc · 22%

Body

50% acc · 10%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

92% acc · 38%

By position

32% acc · 76%

Distance

33% acc · 83%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

25% acc · 3%

100% acc · 22%

Ground

80% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eric Shelton rounds

even

Alex Perez rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:31Control

Round 2Alex Perez edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:02

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:23Control

Round 3Alex Perez edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 109

Sig Strikes

29 / 82

39%

Sig Str %

35.7%

72 / 140

Total Strikes

67 / 123

0 / 2

TDs

5 / 9

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

6:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Perez	13 / 39	29 / 56	1 / 1
1	Eric Shelton	18 / 40	23 / 45	0 / 1
2	Alex Perez	6 / 22	22 / 39	1 / 2
2	Eric Shelton	10 / 22	25 / 37	0 / 1
3	Alex Perez	10 / 21	16 / 28	3 / 6
3	Eric Shelton	13 / 47	24 / 58	0 / 0

Eric Shelton

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Alex Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights16