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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jason Brilz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Eric SchafervsJason BrilzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · Sunday, March 21, 2010Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Jason Brilz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEric Schafer: Submission grapplervsJason Brilz: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jason Brilz wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Jason Brilz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Brilz at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jason Brilz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Eric Schafer has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Eric Schafer has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Eric Schafer

Red Corner

Jason Brilz

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1351

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eric SchaferL2 streak

oldest →

vs Aaron Simpson · Oct 11

KOvs Jorge Rivera · Jan 12

latest

Jason BrilzL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rogerio Nogueira · May 10

KOvs Vladimir Matyushenko · Apr 11

KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eric SchaferMetricJason Brilz

1.89

Strikes / min

2.66

3.38

Strikes absorbed / min

1.78

56%

Strike defense

65%

1.81

TDs / 15 min

2.37

50%

Takedown defense

25%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.49Δ 2.37 — meaningful gap+0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eric SchaferJason Brilz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eric Schafer(3 fights)Jason Brilz(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eric SchaferTargetJason Brilz

By target zone

30% acc · 81%

Head

43% acc · 77%

71% acc · 19%

Body

88% acc · 10%

Leg

82% acc · 13%

By position

27% acc · 63%

Distance

40% acc · 54%

53% acc · 30%

Clinch

65% acc · 37%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

67% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eric Schafer rounds

even

Jason Brilz rounds

Round 1Jason Brilz edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:15

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:06Control

Round 2Jason Brilz edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:03

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:12Control

Round 3Jason Brilz edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:27

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 81

Sig Strikes

70 / 145

28%

Sig Str %

48%

52 / 107

Total Strikes

130 / 206

2 / 3

TDs

3 / 6

66.7%

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

1:45

Ctrl Time

7:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jason Brilz	23 / 47	43 / 67	1 / 3	0
1	Eric Schafer	19 / 44	32 / 57	1 / 1	0
2	Jason Brilz	20 / 39	39 / 59	1 / 2	1
2	Eric Schafer	6 / 20	14 / 28	1 / 1	1
3	Jason Brilz	27 / 59	48 / 80	1 / 1	0
3	Eric Schafer	2 / 17	6 / 22	0 / 1	0

Eric Schafer

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3

Jason Brilz

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4