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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Kevin Aguilar won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
Enrique Barzola
Elo1400
Kevin Aguilar

Enrique BarzolavsKevin AguilarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Saturday, March 30, 2019Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Aguilar won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEnrique Barzola: WrestlervsKevin Aguilar: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Enrique Barzola wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Kevin Aguilar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Enrique Barzola at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Kevin Aguilar enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Enrique Barzola has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Enrique Barzola (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Enrique Barzola
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Aguilar
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
1492
Elo
1400
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Enrique Barzola
oldest →
W
vs Gabriel Benitez · May 17
W
vs Matt Bessette · Jan 18
W
vs Brandon Davis · May 18
W
vs Bobby Moffett · Aug 19
L
vs Movsar Evloev · Oct 19
latest
Kevin AguilarL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Rick Glenn · Nov 18
L
vs Dan Ige · Jun 19
L
KOvs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 20
L
vs Charles Rosa · Jun 20
L
vs Tucker Lutz · May 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Enrique BarzolaMetricKevin Aguilar
3.91
Strikes / min
3.96
2.97
Strikes absorbed / min
4.81
68%
Strike defense
52%
4.20
TDs / 15 min
0.16
66%
Takedown defense
78%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.94Δ 1.79 — meaningful gap-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1561 vs 1517Strikes52.8 vs 86.0Takedowns6.2 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.00Form0.8 vs 1.0
Enrique BarzolaKevin Aguilar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Enrique Barzola(9 fights)Kevin Aguilar(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +91.5|Blue -91.5
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +2.6|Blue -2.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red +195.0|Blue -195.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Enrique BarzolaTargetKevin Aguilar

By target zone

28
29% acc · 54%
Head
36
17% acc · 62%
9
69% acc · 17%
Body
20
65% acc · 34%
15
88% acc · 29%
Leg
2
50% acc · 3%

By position

50
41% acc · 96%
Distance
58
24% acc · 100%
2
40% acc · 4%
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Enrique Barzola rounds
0
even
2
Kevin Aguilar rounds
Round 1Kevin Aguilar edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:09
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Kevin Aguilar edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:09
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Enrique Barzola edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:12
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
52 / 126
Sig Strikes
58 / 243
40.3%
Sig Str %
23.3%
53 / 127
Total Strikes
58 / 243
0 / 8
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:30
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kevin Aguilar18 / 7018 / 700 / 00
1Enrique Barzola13 / 3313 / 330 / 10
2Kevin Aguilar19 / 8019 / 800 / 00
2Enrique Barzola15 / 3715 / 370 / 60
3Kevin Aguilar21 / 9321 / 930 / 00
3Enrique Barzola24 / 5625 / 570 / 10

Enrique Barzola

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights9

Kevin Aguilar

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6