← All fights/Event page

Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Hannah Goldy won · SUB R1

Elo1408

Elo1476

Emily WhitmirevsHannah GoldyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Saturday, September 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Hannah Goldy won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:17

Style matchupEmily Whitmire: Well-roundedvsHannah Goldy: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Hannah Goldy wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Hannah Goldy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hannah Goldy at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hannah Goldy enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Hannah Goldy threatens submissions; Emily Whitmire has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Emily Whitmire has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Emily Whitmire

Red Corner

Hannah Goldy

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1408

Elo

1476

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

160.02 cm

Reach

154.94 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Emily WhitmireL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Dec 17

vs Jamie Moyle · Jul 18

SUBvs Alexandra Albu · Feb 19

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jun 19

SUBvs Polyana Viana · Aug 20

latest

Hannah GoldyL4 streak

oldest →

vs Miranda Granger · Aug 19

vs Diana Belbita · Jul 21

KOvs Molly McCann · Jul 22

vs Mizuki · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Emily WhitmireMetricHannah Goldy

2.50

Strikes / min

5.19

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

4.67

54%

Strike defense

50%

1.90

TDs / 15 min

0.66

70%

Takedown defense

54%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48Δ 1.00 — meaningful gap+0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Emily WhitmireHannah Goldy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Emily Whitmire(6 fights)Hannah Goldy(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -67.9|Blue +67.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +329.0|Blue -329.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Emily WhitmireTargetHannah Goldy

By target zone

30% acc · 60%

Head

8% acc · 10%

50% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

88% acc · 70%

By position

42% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 90%

Clinch

50% acc · 10%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Emily Whitmire rounds

even

Hannah Goldy rounds

Round 1Emily Whitmire edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control3:04

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 13

Sig Strikes

10 / 22

38%

Sig Str %

45%

15 / 26

Total Strikes

24 / 46

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:04

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hannah Goldy	10 / 22	24 / 46	0 / 0	1
1	Emily Whitmire	5 / 13	15 / 26	2 / 2	0

Emily Whitmire

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights6

Hannah Goldy

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach61.0"

Fights5