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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Bartosz Fabinski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1381

Elo1399

Emil MeekvsBartosz FabinskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · Sunday, July 22, 2018Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Official fight result

Bartosz Fabinski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Bartosz Fabinski wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Bartosz Fabinski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bartosz Fabinski at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bartosz Fabinski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Bartosz Fabinski has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bartosz Fabinski has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Emil Meek (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Emil Meek

Red Corner

Bartosz Fabinski

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1381

Elo

1399

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Emil MeekL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jordan Mein · Dec 16

vs Kamaru Usman · Jan 18

vs Jake Matthews · Feb 20

latest

Bartosz FabinskiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Garreth McLellan · Apr 15

vs Hector Urbina · Nov 15

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Nov 18

SUBvs Andre Muniz · Sep 20

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Emil MeekMetricBartosz Fabinski

2.52

Strikes / min

2.23

2.53

Strikes absorbed / min

1.46

38%

Strike defense

51%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

7.10

47%

Takedown defense

80%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.01evenly matched on net striking+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Emil MeekBartosz Fabinski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Emil Meek(4 fights)Bartosz Fabinski(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.8|Blue +17.8

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -785.0|Blue +785.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Emil MeekTargetBartosz Fabinski

By target zone

33% acc · 95%

Head

70% acc · 80%

20% acc · 5%

Body

80% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

25% acc · 67%

Distance

63% acc · 34%

60% acc · 14%

Clinch

75% acc · 9%

100% acc · 19%

Ground

80% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Emil Meek rounds

even

Bartosz Fabinski rounds

Round 1Bartosz Fabinski edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:56Control

Round 2Bartosz Fabinski edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:03

8Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:30Control

Round 3Bartosz Fabinski edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:10

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 65

Sig Strikes

35 / 48

41%

Sig Str %

71%

69 / 115

Total Strikes

72 / 91

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 9

—

TD %

69.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

13:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bartosz Fabinski	9 / 12	18 / 24	2 / 2	0
1	Emil Meek	3 / 5	29 / 32	0 / 0	0
2	Bartosz Fabinski	8 / 14	25 / 34	3 / 4	0
2	Emil Meek	8 / 21	20 / 33	0 / 0	0
3	Bartosz Fabinski	18 / 22	29 / 33	1 / 3	0
3	Emil Meek	10 / 39	20 / 50	0 / 0	1

Emil Meek

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

Bartosz Fabinski

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6