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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Smith won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1359

Elo1485

Elvis MutapcicvsAnthony SmithUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · Saturday, December 3, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Smith won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:27

Model Prediction: Elvis Mutapcic wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Anthony Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elvis Mutapcic at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Elvis Mutapcic has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Anthony Smith has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Elvis Mutapcic

Red Corner

Anthony Smith

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1359

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'4"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elvis Mutapcic

oldest →

vs Francimar Barroso · Jan 16

latest

Anthony SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elvis MutapcicMetricAnthony Smith

3.41

Strikes / min

3.19

4.27

Strikes absorbed / min

5.04

38%

Strike defense

44%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.44

81%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.86evenly matched on net striking-1.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elvis MutapcicAnthony Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elvis Mutapcic(2 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -126.4|Blue +126.4

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +173.0|Blue -173.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elvis MutapcicTargetAnthony Smith

By target zone

32% acc · 76%

Head

53% acc · 85%

20% acc · 3%

Body

50% acc · 8%

75% acc · 21%

Leg

75% acc · 6%

By position

25% acc · 48%

Distance

52% acc · 88%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

83% acc · 10%

56% acc · 48%

Ground

33% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elvis Mutapcic rounds

even

Anthony Smith rounds

Round 1Elvis Mutapcic edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control4:18

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Anthony Smith edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 81

Sig Strikes

48 / 90

39%

Sig Str %

58.5%

39 / 93

Total Strikes

52 / 94

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:18

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Smith	6 / 9	10 / 13	0 / 0	1
1	Elvis Mutapcic	16 / 30	26 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	Anthony Smith	42 / 81	42 / 81	0 / 0	0
2	Elvis Mutapcic	13 / 51	13 / 51	0 / 0	0

Elvis Mutapcic

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25