Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Elves Brener won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1487

Elo1489

Elves BrenervsKaynan KruschewskyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 4, 2023Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Elves Brener won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:01

Style matchupElves Brener: Pressure fightervsKaynan Kruschewsky: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Elves Brener wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Elves Brener wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elves Brener at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Elves Brener enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Elves Brener is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Kaynan Kruschewsky has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Elves Brener

Red Corner

Kaynan Kruschewsky

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1487

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elves BrenerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 23

KOvs Guram Kutateladze · Jul 23

vs Myktybek Orolbai · May 24

KOvs Joel Alvarez · Aug 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Aug 25

latest

Kaynan Kruschewsky

oldest →

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elves BrenerMetricKaynan Kruschewsky

4.76

Strikes / min

5.67

5.86

Strikes absorbed / min

5.71

50%

Strike defense

46%

0.99

TDs / 15 min

2.74

76%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

2.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.10Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elves BrenerKaynan Kruschewsky

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elves Brener(6 fights)Kaynan Kruschewsky(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elves BrenerTargetKaynan Kruschewsky

By target zone

30% acc · 38%

Head

24% acc · 75%

67% acc · 13%

Body

33% acc · 25%

80% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

48% acc · 100%

Distance

26% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elves Brener rounds

even

Kaynan Kruschewsky rounds

Round 1Elves Brener edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 33

Sig Strikes

8 / 31

48%

Sig Str %

25%

16 / 33

Total Strikes

8 / 31

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kaynan Kruschewsky	8 / 31	8 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Elves Brener	16 / 33	16 / 33	0 / 0	0

Elves Brener

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6

Kaynan Kruschewsky

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2