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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Esteban Ribovics won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1501

Elves BrenervsEsteban RibovicsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Saturday, August 2, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Esteban Ribovics won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupElves Brener: Pressure fightervsEsteban Ribovics: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Esteban Ribovics wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Esteban Ribovics wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Esteban Ribovics at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Elves Brener

Red Corner

Esteban Ribovics

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1487

Elo

1501

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elves BrenerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 23

KOvs Guram Kutateladze · Jul 23

KOvs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Nov 23

vs Myktybek Orolbai · May 24

KOvs Joel Alvarez · Aug 24

latest

Esteban RibovicsL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kamuela Kirk · Jul 23

KOvs Terrance McKinney · May 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 24

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Mar 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elves BrenerMetricEsteban Ribovics

4.76

Strikes / min

7.27

5.86

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

50%

Strike defense

54%

0.99

TDs / 15 min

0.35

76%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.10Δ 2.54 — meaningful gap+1.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elves BrenerEsteban Ribovics

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elves Brener(6 fights)Esteban Ribovics(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.7|Blue +13.7

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +210.0|Blue -210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elves BrenerTargetEsteban Ribovics

By target zone

42% acc · 75%

Head

37% acc · 70%

65% acc · 13%

Body

79% acc · 19%

94% acc · 13%

Leg

68% acc · 11%

By position

118

48% acc · 100%

Distance

114

43% acc · 93%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

62% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elves Brener rounds

even

Esteban Ribovics rounds

Round 1Esteban Ribovics edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 2Elves Brener edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 3Esteban Ribovics edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

118 / 250

Sig Strikes

122 / 281

47.3%

Sig Str %

43%

123 / 256

Total Strikes

123 / 284

0 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Esteban Ribovics	39 / 95	40 / 97	0 / 0
1	Elves Brener	36 / 68	37 / 69	0 / 6
2	Esteban Ribovics	34 / 84	34 / 85	0 / 0
2	Elves Brener	48 / 88	51 / 92	0 / 1
3	Esteban Ribovics	49 / 102	49 / 102	0 / 0
3	Elves Brener	34 / 94	35 / 95	0 / 2

Elves Brener

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6

Esteban Ribovics

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6