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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Nicolas Dalby won · S-DEC R3

Elo1488

Elo1508

Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosvsNicolas DalbyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves · Saturday, May 30, 2015Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Nicolas Dalby won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupElizeu Zaleski dos Santos: Pressure fightervsNicolas Dalby: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Nicolas Dalby wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Nicolas Dalby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nicolas Dalby at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Red Corner

Nicolas Dalby

Blue Corner

+230

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-270

(73%)

1488

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov · Jun 23

vs Randy Brown · Jun 24

KOvs Zachary Scroggin · Nov 24

KOvs Chidi Njokuani · Mar 25

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 25

latest

Nicolas Dalby

oldest →

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24

KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25

vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosMetricNicolas Dalby

4.16

Strikes / min

3.88

3.56

Strikes absorbed / min

3.51

55%

Strike defense

52%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

0.90

67%

Takedown defense

59%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.37

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos(10 fights)Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.7|Blue +19.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosTargetNicolas Dalby

By target zone

35% acc · 65%

Head

14% acc · 34%

76% acc · 23%

Body

63% acc · 29%

88% acc · 12%

Leg

79% acc · 37%

By position

39% acc · 77%

Distance

24% acc · 66%

79% acc · 19%

Clinch

57% acc · 29%

67% acc · 4%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos rounds

even

Nicolas Dalby rounds

Round 1Nicolas Dalby edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 3Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:36

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:17Control

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 131

Sig Strikes

41 / 139

43%

Sig Str %

31%

61 / 135

Total Strikes

50 / 150

0 / 2

TDs

6 / 10

TD %

63.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

4:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nicolas Dalby	14 / 32	18 / 38	3 / 3
1	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	11 / 34	11 / 34	0 / 0
2	Nicolas Dalby	15 / 61	17 / 63	2 / 5
2	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	23 / 56	23 / 56	0 / 1
3	Nicolas Dalby	12 / 46	15 / 49	1 / 2
3	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	23 / 41	27 / 45	0 / 1

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights15

Nicolas Dalby

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14