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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won · SUB R1
Elo1488
Elo1372
Curtis Millender

Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosvsCurtis MillenderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, March 9, 2019Wichita, Kansas, USA

Official fight result

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:35

Style matchupElizeu Zaleski dos Santos: Pressure fightervsCurtis Millender: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Curtis Millender wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curtis Millender at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Red Corner
VS
Curtis Millender
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1488
Elo
1372
39
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'2"
185.42 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov · Jun 23
L
vs Randy Brown · Jun 24
W
KOvs Zachary Scroggin · Nov 24
L
KOvs Chidi Njokuani · Mar 25
L
KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 25
latest
Curtis Millender
oldest →
W
KOvs Thiago Alves · Feb 18
W
vs Max Griffin · Jul 18
W
vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Dec 18
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Apr 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosMetricCurtis Millender
4.16
Strikes / min
3.86
3.56
Strikes absorbed / min
2.95
55%
Strike defense
61%
0.79
TDs / 15 min
0.43
67%
Takedown defense
57%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1590 vs 1556Strikes51.4 vs 58.0Takedowns0.3 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.43 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosCurtis Millender

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos(10 fights)Curtis Millender(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +116.4|Blue -116.4
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosTargetCurtis Millender

By target zone

4
67% acc · 67%
Head
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 17%
Body
0
1
50% acc · 17%
Leg
0

By position

3
75% acc · 50%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
3
60% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos rounds
0
even
0
Curtis Millender rounds
Round 1Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control2:08
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 9
Sig Strikes
0 / 1
66%
Sig Str %
0%
10 / 13
Total Strikes
0 / 1
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:08
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Curtis Millender0 / 10 / 10 / 00
1Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos6 / 910 / 131 / 11

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights15

Curtis Millender

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights5