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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Elise Reed won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1477

Elise ReedvsJinh Yu FreyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Saturday, June 3, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Elise Reed won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupElise Reed: StrikervsJinh Yu Frey: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Elise Reed wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Elise Reed wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elise Reed at -132 American odds

+$76 profit

$176 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jinh Yu Frey enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jinh Yu Frey has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jinh Yu Frey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Elise Reed

Red Corner

Jinh Yu Frey

Blue Corner

-132

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+112

(47%)

1494

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'3"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elise Reed

oldest →

vs Melissa Martinez · Sep 22

SUBvs Loma Lookboonmee · Feb 23

SUBvs Loopy Godinez · Sep 23

vs Jessica Penne · Oct 24

KOvs Denise Gomes · May 25

latest

Jinh Yu FreyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gloria de Paula · Mar 21

vs Ashley Yoder · Jul 21

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · Jun 22

KOvs Polyana Viana · Nov 22

vs Viktoriia Dudakova · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elise ReedMetricJinh Yu Frey

3.41

Strikes / min

2.97

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

4.23

51%

Strike defense

52%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

1.02

53%

Takedown defense

90%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap-1.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elise ReedJinh Yu Frey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elise Reed(9 fights)Jinh Yu Frey(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.7|Blue -16.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elise ReedTargetJinh Yu Frey

By target zone

25% acc · 30%

Head

22% acc · 54%

58% acc · 40%

Body

31% acc · 14%

84% acc · 30%

Leg

90% acc · 32%

By position

41% acc · 85%

Distance

31% acc · 93%

89% acc · 15%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elise Reed rounds

even

Jinh Yu Frey rounds

Round 1Jinh Yu Frey edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:13

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:52Control

Round 2Elise Reed edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:34

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 3Elise Reed edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:42

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 120

Sig Strikes

28 / 91

45.3%

Sig Str %

31%

94 / 174

Total Strikes

42 / 114

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 7

TD %

38.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:29

Ctrl Time

4:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jinh Yu Frey	11 / 26	16 / 34	2 / 3
1	Elise Reed	14 / 32	36 / 63	0 / 0
2	Jinh Yu Frey	7 / 27	12 / 35	1 / 2
2	Elise Reed	19 / 33	31 / 49	0 / 0
3	Jinh Yu Frey	10 / 38	14 / 45	0 / 2
3	Elise Reed	20 / 55	27 / 62	0 / 1

Elise Reed

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights9

Jinh Yu Frey

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8