Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Elijah Smith won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1549

Elo1486

Elijah SmithvsToshiomi KazamaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Saturday, August 9, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Elijah Smith won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:10

Style matchupElijah Smith: WrestlervsToshiomi Kazama: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Elijah Smith wins(79.9%)

Actual result: Elijah Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elijah Smith at -820 American odds

+$12 profit

$112 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Elijah Smith

Red Corner

Toshiomi Kazama

Blue Corner

-820

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+570

(15%)

1549

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elijah SmithW2 streak

oldest →

vs Vince Morales · Feb 25

SUBvs SuYoung You · Mar 26

latest

Toshiomi Kazama

oldest →

KOvs Rinya Nakamura · Feb 23

KOvs Garrett Armfield · Aug 23

SUBvs Charalampos Grigoriou · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elijah SmithMetricToshiomi Kazama

4.18

Strikes / min

1.49

2.96

Strikes absorbed / min

4.56

46%

Strike defense

38%

2.98

TDs / 15 min

1.94

53%

Takedown defense

66%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.22Δ 4.29 — meaningful gap-3.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elijah SmithToshiomi Kazama

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elijah Smith(3 fights)Toshiomi Kazama(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +62.8|Blue -62.8

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -189.0|Blue +189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elijah SmithTargetToshiomi Kazama

By target zone

80% acc · 95%

Head

100% acc · 5%

Body

Leg

By position

33% acc · 3%

Distance

Clinch

84% acc · 97%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elijah Smith rounds

even

Toshiomi Kazama rounds

Round 1Elijah Smith edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control3:49

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 46

Sig Strikes

0 / 0

80%

Sig Str %

—

61 / 74

Total Strikes

2 / 2

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:49

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Toshiomi Kazama	0 / 0	2 / 2	1 / 1	1
1	Elijah Smith	37 / 46	61 / 74	0 / 0	0

Elijah Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3

Toshiomi Kazama

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4