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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Elias Theodorou won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1379

Elias TheodorouvsTrevor SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · Sunday, May 27, 2018Liverpool, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Elias Theodorou won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupElias Theodorou: Well-roundedvsTrevor Smith: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Elias Theodorou wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Elias Theodorou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elias Theodorou at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Elias Theodorou

Red Corner

Trevor Smith

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1492

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elias Theodorou

oldest →

vs Cezar Ferreira · Feb 17

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 17

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 17

vs Eryk Anders · Dec 18

vs Derek Brunson · May 19

latest

Trevor SmithL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Joe Gigliotti · Aug 16

vs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 16

vs Chris Camozzi · May 17

vs Zak Cummings · Dec 18

KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elias TheodorouMetricTrevor Smith

4.19

Strikes / min

3.29

2.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

53%

Strike defense

51%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

1.70

59%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 1.82 — meaningful gap-0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elias TheodorouTrevor Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elias Theodorou(10 fights)Trevor Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +113.0|Blue -113.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -174.0|Blue +174.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elias TheodorouTargetTrevor Smith

By target zone

45% acc · 48%

Head

29% acc · 34%

70% acc · 43%

Body

78% acc · 51%

88% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

43% acc · 30%

Distance

32% acc · 34%

63% acc · 66%

Clinch

75% acc · 59%

75% acc · 4%

Ground

60% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elias Theodorou rounds

even

Trevor Smith rounds

Round 1Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control1:05

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:51Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control1:26

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:21Control

Round 3Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:33

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 138

Sig Strikes

41 / 81

54%

Sig Str %

49.3%

140 / 203

Total Strikes

82 / 123

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 11

—

TD %

23.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:04

Ctrl Time

4:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Trevor Smith	13 / 25	32 / 44	0 / 2
1	Elias Theodorou	37 / 57	65 / 85	0 / 0
2	Trevor Smith	19 / 32	31 / 45	2 / 4
2	Elias Theodorou	23 / 47	42 / 68	0 / 0
3	Trevor Smith	9 / 24	19 / 34	1 / 5
3	Elias Theodorou	17 / 34	33 / 50	0 / 0

Elias Theodorou

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Trevor Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12