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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Santos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1432

Elias TheodorouvsThiago SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · Thursday, December 10, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Thiago Santos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupElias Theodorou: Well-roundedvsThiago Santos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Elias Theodorou wins(74.3%)

Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elias Theodorou at -225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Elias Theodorou

Red Corner

Thiago Santos

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1492

Elo

1432

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elias Theodorou

oldest →

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 17

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 17

vs Trevor Smith · May 18

vs Eryk Anders · Dec 18

vs Derek Brunson · May 19

latest

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elias TheodorouMetricThiago Santos

4.19

Strikes / min

3.72

2.39

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

53%

Strike defense

53%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

0.88

59%

Takedown defense

65%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80evenly matched on net striking+1.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elias TheodorouThiago Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elias Theodorou(10 fights)Thiago Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.3|Blue -59.3

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elias TheodorouTargetThiago Santos

By target zone

6% acc · 11%

Head

52% acc · 44%

62% acc · 64%

Body

82% acc · 35%

44% acc · 25%

Leg

73% acc · 21%

By position

26% acc · 82%

Distance

47% acc · 38%

71% acc · 18%

Clinch

83% acc · 58%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elias Theodorou rounds

even

Thiago Santos rounds

Round 1Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:11

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:22

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 3Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control3:16

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 94

Sig Strikes

52 / 81

44.3%

Sig Str %

62%

40 / 110

Total Strikes

83 / 112

1 / 13

TDs

1 / 2

12.5%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:49

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thiago Santos	8 / 21	8 / 21	0 / 0
1	Elias Theodorou	14 / 71	16 / 74	0 / 0
2	Thiago Santos	24 / 27	39 / 42	1 / 2
2	Elias Theodorou	11 / 13	14 / 16	1 / 4
3	Thiago Santos	20 / 33	36 / 49	0 / 0
3	Elias Theodorou	3 / 10	10 / 20	0 / 9

Elias Theodorou

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24