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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Elias Theodorou won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1492

Elo1490

Elias TheodorouvsRoger NarvaezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · Saturday, March 14, 2015Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Elias Theodorou won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:07

Model Prediction: Elias Theodorou wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Elias Theodorou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elias Theodorou at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roger Narvaez has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Roger Narvaez (53.5%).
Roger Narvaez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Elias Theodorou

Red Corner

Roger Narvaez

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+305

(25%)

1492

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elias Theodorou

oldest →

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 17

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 17

vs Trevor Smith · May 18

vs Eryk Anders · Dec 18

vs Derek Brunson · May 19

latest

Roger Narvaez

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · Jun 14

vs Luke Barnatt · Nov 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elias TheodorouMetricRoger Narvaez

4.19

Strikes / min

2.12

2.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

53%

Strike defense

64%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

0.00

59%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 3.00 — meaningful gap-1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elias TheodorouRoger Narvaez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elias Theodorou(10 fights)Roger Narvaez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elias TheodorouTargetRoger Narvaez

By target zone

29% acc · 62%

Head

21% acc · 44%

47% acc · 21%

Body

60% acc · 38%

50% acc · 18%

Leg

60% acc · 19%

By position

24% acc · 54%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

67% acc · 10%

Clinch

67% acc · 36%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elias Theodorou rounds

even

Roger Narvaez rounds

Round 1Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:36

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns2

Control1:36

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 113

Sig Strikes

16 / 49

34%

Sig Str %

31.5%

55 / 135

Total Strikes

17 / 50

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:12

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roger Narvaez	12 / 36	13 / 37	0 / 0
1	Elias Theodorou	16 / 58	17 / 59	0 / 1
2	Roger Narvaez	4 / 13	4 / 13	0 / 0
2	Elias Theodorou	23 / 55	38 / 76	2 / 3

Elias Theodorou

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Roger Narvaez

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach—

Fights3