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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Elias Theodorou won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1512

Elias TheodorouvsEryk AndersUFC Prediction Result

UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 8, 2018Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Elias Theodorou won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupElias Theodorou: Well-roundedvsEryk Anders: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Elias Theodorou wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Elias Theodorou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elias Theodorou at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eryk Anders has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Eryk Anders (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Elias Theodorou

Red Corner

Eryk Anders

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1492

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elias Theodorou

oldest →

vs Cezar Ferreira · Feb 17

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 17

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 17

vs Trevor Smith · May 18

vs Derek Brunson · May 19

latest

Eryk Anders

oldest →

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 23

vs Jamie Pickett · Mar 24

KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 24

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Aug 25

vs Brad Tavares · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elias TheodorouMetricEryk Anders

4.19

Strikes / min

3.44

2.39

Strikes absorbed / min

4.03

53%

Strike defense

50%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

1.83

59%

Takedown defense

80%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 2.39 — meaningful gap-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elias TheodorouEryk Anders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elias Theodorou(10 fights)Eryk Anders(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.4|Blue +20.4

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +118.0|Blue -118.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elias TheodorouTargetEryk Anders

By target zone

24% acc · 34%

Head

47% acc · 83%

74% acc · 34%

Body

63% acc · 15%

71% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

37% acc · 70%

Distance

46% acc · 74%

70% acc · 30%

Clinch

61% acc · 26%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elias Theodorou rounds

even

Eryk Anders rounds

Round 1Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:36

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Eryk Anders edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

92 / 211

Sig Strikes

65 / 133

44%

Sig Str %

45%

102 / 221

Total Strikes

66 / 134

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Eryk Anders	8 / 23	9 / 24	0 / 0
1	Elias Theodorou	35 / 69	36 / 70	0 / 1
2	Eryk Anders	36 / 63	36 / 63	0 / 0
2	Elias Theodorou	29 / 59	37 / 67	0 / 1
3	Eryk Anders	21 / 47	21 / 47	0 / 1
3	Elias Theodorou	28 / 83	29 / 84	0 / 1

Elias Theodorou

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Eryk Anders

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19