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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Elias Theodorou won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1374

Elias TheodorouvsCezar FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · Sunday, February 19, 2017Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Elias Theodorou won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupElias Theodorou: Well-roundedvsCezar Ferreira: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Elias Theodorou wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Elias Theodorou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elias Theodorou at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cezar Ferreira has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Elias Theodorou

Red Corner

Cezar Ferreira

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1492

Elo

1374

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elias Theodorou

oldest →

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 17

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 17

vs Trevor Smith · May 18

vs Eryk Anders · Dec 18

vs Derek Brunson · May 19

latest

Cezar FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 16

vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17

SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18

vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elias TheodorouMetricCezar Ferreira

4.19

Strikes / min

1.90

2.39

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

53%

Strike defense

53%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

2.69

59%

Takedown defense

84%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 2.34 — meaningful gap-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elias TheodorouCezar Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elias Theodorou(10 fights)Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +117.2|Blue -117.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elias TheodorouTargetCezar Ferreira

By target zone

23% acc · 47%

Head

15% acc · 36%

50% acc · 21%

Body

50% acc · 27%

60% acc · 32%

Leg

67% acc · 36%

By position

27% acc · 74%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

0% acc

78% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elias Theodorou rounds

even

Cezar Ferreira rounds

Round 1Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:39

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:44

1Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 3Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:16

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 116

Sig Strikes

11 / 38

34.3%

Sig Str %

22.7%

70 / 155

Total Strikes

11 / 38

1 / 4

TDs

3 / 6

16.7%

TD %

49.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:39

Ctrl Time

1:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cezar Ferreira	9 / 19	9 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Elias Theodorou	12 / 51	18 / 63	0 / 1	0
2	Cezar Ferreira	1 / 9	1 / 9	2 / 3	2
2	Elias Theodorou	15 / 31	32 / 48	1 / 2	0
3	Cezar Ferreira	1 / 10	1 / 10	1 / 3	0
3	Elias Theodorou	11 / 34	20 / 44	0 / 1	0

Elias Theodorou

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15