← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Elias Theodorou won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1490

Elias TheodorouvsBruno SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Elias Theodorou won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupElias Theodorou: Well-roundedvsBruno Santos: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Elias Theodorou wins(67.1%)

Actual result: Elias Theodorou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elias Theodorou at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Elias Theodorou has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Elias Theodorou

Red Corner

Bruno Santos

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1492

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elias Theodorou

oldest →

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 17

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 17

vs Trevor Smith · May 18

vs Eryk Anders · Dec 18

vs Derek Brunson · May 19

latest

Bruno Santos

oldest →

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Dec 13

vs Chris Camozzi · Jul 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elias TheodorouMetricBruno Santos

4.19

Strikes / min

1.18

2.39

Strikes absorbed / min

2.27

53%

Strike defense

56%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

3.00

59%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 2.89 — meaningful gap-1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elias TheodorouBruno Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elias Theodorou(10 fights)Bruno Santos(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +80.0|Blue -80.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elias TheodorouTargetBruno Santos

By target zone

24% acc · 42%

Head

29% acc · 63%

78% acc · 49%

Body

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

28% acc · 49%

Distance

29% acc · 56%

67% acc · 37%

Clinch

78% acc · 44%

100% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elias Theodorou rounds

even

Bruno Santos rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:41

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:07

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 3Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns3

Control3:45

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 106

Sig Strikes

16 / 40

42.7%

Sig Str %

27.7%

104 / 178

Total Strikes

29 / 54

3 / 7

TDs

4 / 6

30%

TD %

77.7%

Sub Att

Rev

6:33

Ctrl Time

2:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bruno Santos	12 / 24	16 / 28	2 / 2
1	Elias Theodorou	14 / 43	21 / 50	0 / 2
2	Bruno Santos	4 / 12	11 / 20	1 / 3
2	Elias Theodorou	15 / 39	30 / 57	0 / 0
3	Bruno Santos	0 / 4	2 / 6	1 / 1
3	Elias Theodorou	14 / 24	53 / 71	3 / 5

Elias Theodorou

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Bruno Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights3