← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Elias Silverio won · SUB R3

Elo1355

Elo1354

Elias SilveriovsErnest ChavezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Elias Silverio won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:21

Model Prediction: Elias Silverio wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Elias Silverio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elias Silverio at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Elias Silverio has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Elias Silverio

Red Corner

Ernest Chavez

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1355

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elias SilverioL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joao Zeferino · Sep 13

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Jan 14

KOvs Rashid Magomedov · Dec 14

vs Shane Campbell · Aug 15

latest

Ernest Chavez

oldest →

vs Yosdenis Cedeno · Feb 14

KOvs Zubaira Tukhugov · Oct 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elias SilverioMetricErnest Chavez

3.67

Strikes / min

2.79

2.97

Strikes absorbed / min

3.89

51%

Strike defense

59%

1.62

TDs / 15 min

0.89

85%

Takedown defense

50%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.70Δ 1.80 — meaningful gap-1.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elias SilverioErnest Chavez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elias Silverio(5 fights)Ernest Chavez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +38.0|Blue -38.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elias SilverioTargetErnest Chavez

By target zone

31% acc · 60%

Head

28% acc · 54%

45% acc · 20%

Body

52% acc · 20%

68% acc · 20%

Leg

93% acc · 26%

By position

35% acc · 85%

Distance

37% acc · 85%

59% acc · 15%

Clinch

62% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elias Silverio rounds

even

Ernest Chavez rounds

Round 1Ernest Chavez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:03

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 2Elias Silverio edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 3Elias Silverio edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:35

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 172

Sig Strikes

54 / 139

36.7%

Sig Str %

37%

65 / 172

Total Strikes

61 / 146

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 4

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

2:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ernest Chavez	27 / 58	30 / 61	0 / 1	0
1	Elias Silverio	20 / 56	20 / 56	0 / 0	0
2	Ernest Chavez	17 / 43	19 / 45	0 / 2	0
2	Elias Silverio	29 / 67	29 / 67	0 / 0	0
3	Ernest Chavez	10 / 38	12 / 40	0 / 1	0
3	Elias Silverio	16 / 49	16 / 49	1 / 1	1

Elias Silverio

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Ernest Chavez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3