Flyweight

3 Rounds

Kai Kara-France won · U-DEC R3

Elo1369

Elo1495

Elias GarciavsKai Kara-FranceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, December 1, 2018Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Kai Kara-France won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Elias Garcia wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Kai Kara-France wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elias Garcia at +300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kai Kara-France has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kai Kara-France has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Elias Garcia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Elias Garcia

Red Corner

Kai Kara-France

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-360

(78%)

1369

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elias Garcia

oldest →

SUBvs Mark De La Rosa · Jul 18

latest

Kai Kara-France

oldest →

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 22

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Jul 22

vs Amir Albazi · Jun 23

KOvs Steve Erceg · Aug 24

SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elias GarciaMetricKai Kara-France

1.59

Strikes / min

4.46

5.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

50%

Strike defense

64%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

0.56

33%

Takedown defense

83%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.46Δ 4.68 — meaningful gap+1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elias GarciaKai Kara-France

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elias Garcia(2 fights)Kai Kara-France(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -126.4|Blue +126.4

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elias GarciaTargetKai Kara-France

By target zone

19% acc · 81%

Head

45% acc · 86%

50% acc · 6%

Body

82% acc · 10%

50% acc · 13%

Leg

75% acc · 3%

By position

21% acc · 94%

Distance

40% acc · 38%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

Ground

55% acc · 62%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elias Garcia rounds

even

Kai Kara-France rounds

Round 1Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:35Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:07

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:56Control

Round 3Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:19

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 73

Sig Strikes

86 / 178

22%

Sig Str %

47.7%

20 / 77

Total Strikes

157 / 261

1 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

11%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

9:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kai Kara-France	23 / 49	36 / 62	0 / 0	0
1	Elias Garcia	5 / 21	6 / 22	0 / 2	0
2	Kai Kara-France	38 / 65	77 / 112	0 / 0	0
2	Elias Garcia	6 / 22	8 / 24	0 / 2	2
3	Kai Kara-France	25 / 64	44 / 87	0 / 0	0
3	Elias Garcia	5 / 30	6 / 31	1 / 3	0

Elias Garcia

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights2

Kai Kara-France

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11