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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Efrain Escudero won · U-DEC R3

Elo1357

Elo1354

Efrain EscuderovsRodrigo de LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · Saturday, February 14, 2015Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Efrain Escudero won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEfrain Escudero: Well-roundedvsRodrigo de Lima: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Efrain Escudero wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Efrain Escudero wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Efrain Escudero at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Efrain Escudero has 31pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Efrain Escudero has 66pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Rodrigo de Lima has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Efrain Escudero

Red Corner

Rodrigo de Lima

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1357

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Efrain EscuderoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mac Danzig · Apr 12

vs Leonardo Santos · Sep 14

SUBvs Drew Dober · Jun 15

vs Leandro Silva · Nov 15

vs Kevin Lee · Apr 16

latest

Rodrigo de Lima

oldest →

KOvs Neil Magny · Jun 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Efrain EscuderoMetricRodrigo de Lima

2.92

Strikes / min

1.29

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

5.50

63%

Strike defense

32%

1.31

TDs / 15 min

2.66

66%

Takedown defense

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62Δ 4.83 — meaningful gap-4.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Efrain EscuderoRodrigo de Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Efrain Escudero(9 fights)Rodrigo de Lima(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Efrain EscuderoTargetRodrigo de Lima

By target zone

69% acc · 79%

Head

22% acc · 54%

93% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

71% acc · 21%

By position

61% acc · 47%

Distance

28% acc · 75%

100% acc · 17%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

83% acc · 36%

Ground

71% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Efrain Escudero rounds

even

Rodrigo de Lima rounds

Round 1Efrain Escudero edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:15

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:28Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Efrain Escudero edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control2:24

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 3Efrain Escudero edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control3:32

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 129

Sig Strikes

24 / 72

72%

Sig Str %

32.7%

194 / 245

Total Strikes

32 / 83

2 / 2

TDs

3 / 8

100%

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

6:11

Ctrl Time

3:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rodrigo de Lima	11 / 28	13 / 31	2 / 3
1	Efrain Escudero	20 / 30	28 / 38	1 / 1
2	Rodrigo de Lima	8 / 28	10 / 32	0 / 4
2	Efrain Escudero	43 / 60	74 / 94	0 / 0
3	Rodrigo de Lima	5 / 16	9 / 20	1 / 1
3	Efrain Escudero	31 / 39	92 / 113	1 / 1

Efrain Escudero

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Rodrigo de Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights2