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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Lee won · U-DEC R3

Elo1357

Elo1466

Efrain EscuderovsKevin LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · Saturday, April 23, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Lee won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEfrain Escudero: Well-roundedvsKevin Lee: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Lee at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Efrain Escudero has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kevin Lee has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Efrain Escudero

Red Corner

Kevin Lee

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-360

(78%)

1357

Elo

1466

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Efrain Escudero

oldest →

vs Mac Danzig · Apr 12

vs Leonardo Santos · Sep 14

vs Rodrigo de Lima · Feb 15

SUBvs Drew Dober · Jun 15

vs Leandro Silva · Nov 15

latest

Kevin LeeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Efrain EscuderoMetricKevin Lee

2.92

Strikes / min

3.88

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

63%

Strike defense

50%

1.31

TDs / 15 min

3.18

66%

Takedown defense

75%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Efrain EscuderoKevin Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Efrain Escudero(9 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -109.2|Blue +109.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Efrain EscuderoTargetKevin Lee

By target zone

49% acc · 49%

Head

33% acc · 69%

72% acc · 19%

Body

74% acc · 27%

85% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

55% acc · 76%

Distance

33% acc · 69%

94% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 19%

Ground

62% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Efrain Escudero rounds

even

Kevin Lee rounds

Round 1Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:46

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Efrain Escudero edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:50

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 3Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:38

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 114

Sig Strikes

64 / 160

63.3%

Sig Str %

38.7%

96 / 141

Total Strikes

99 / 200

1 / 7

TDs

1 / 4

10%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:14

Ctrl Time

4:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Lee	28 / 64	28 / 64	0 / 2	0
1	Efrain Escudero	21 / 44	26 / 49	1 / 5	0
2	Kevin Lee	23 / 57	26 / 60	0 / 1	0
2	Efrain Escudero	32 / 48	43 / 59	0 / 2	0
3	Kevin Lee	13 / 39	45 / 76	1 / 1	1
3	Efrain Escudero	17 / 22	27 / 33	0 / 0	0

Efrain Escudero

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19