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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Efrain Escudero won · SUB R1

Elo1357

Elo1514

Efrain EscuderovsDrew DoberUFC Prediction Result

UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · Saturday, June 13, 2015Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Efrain Escudero won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:54

Style matchupEfrain Escudero: Well-roundedvsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Efrain Escudero wins(78.9%)

Actual result: Efrain Escudero wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Efrain Escudero at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Efrain Escudero has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Efrain Escudero

Red Corner

Drew Dober

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1357

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Efrain EscuderoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mac Danzig · Apr 12

vs Leonardo Santos · Sep 14

vs Rodrigo de Lima · Feb 15

vs Leandro Silva · Nov 15

vs Kevin Lee · Apr 16

latest

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Efrain EscuderoMetricDrew Dober

2.92

Strikes / min

4.48

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

63%

Strike defense

53%

1.31

TDs / 15 min

0.61

66%

Takedown defense

58%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Efrain EscuderoDrew Dober

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Efrain Escudero(9 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -157.0|Blue +157.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Efrain EscuderoTargetDrew Dober

By target zone

Head

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

100% acc · 100%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Efrain Escudero rounds

even

Drew Dober rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:22

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 1

Sig Strikes

0 / 3

100%

Sig Str %

1 / 1

Total Strikes

0 / 3

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Drew Dober	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 0	0
1	Efrain Escudero	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1

Efrain Escudero

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26