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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · SUB R3

Elo1357

Elo1521

Efrain EscuderovsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · Wednesday, September 15, 2010Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:25

Style matchupEfrain Escudero: Well-roundedvsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Efrain Escudero wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Efrain Escudero at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Efrain Escudero has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Efrain Escudero

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1357

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Efrain EscuderoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Leonardo Santos · Sep 14

vs Rodrigo de Lima · Feb 15

SUBvs Drew Dober · Jun 15

vs Leandro Silva · Nov 15

vs Kevin Lee · Apr 16

latest

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Efrain EscuderoMetricCharles Oliveira

2.92

Strikes / min

3.23

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

63%

Strike defense

48%

1.31

TDs / 15 min

2.29

66%

Takedown defense

54%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Efrain EscuderoCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Efrain Escudero(9 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -164.5|Blue +164.5

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +64.0|Blue -64.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Efrain EscuderoTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

15% acc · 77%

Head

17% acc · 26%

50% acc · 8%

Body

53% acc · 26%

33% acc · 15%

Leg

77% acc · 49%

By position

11% acc · 54%

Distance

36% acc · 89%

57% acc · 31%

Clinch

80% acc · 11%

50% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Efrain Escudero rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:47

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:41

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:20

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 76

Sig Strikes

35 / 91

17.7%

Sig Str %

40%

26 / 89

Total Strikes

60 / 118

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 9

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:48

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	10 / 34	27 / 52	0 / 5	0
1	Efrain Escudero	8 / 24	20 / 36	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Oliveira	16 / 39	21 / 45	1 / 3	0
2	Efrain Escudero	1 / 29	2 / 30	0 / 1	0
3	Charles Oliveira	9 / 18	12 / 21	1 / 1	1
3	Efrain Escudero	4 / 23	4 / 23	0 / 0	0

Efrain Escudero

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36