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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Sergio Moraes won · SUB R2
Elo1378
Sergio Moraes
Elo1379
Ben Saunders

Sergio MoraesvsBen SaundersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · Saturday, September 22, 2018Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Sergio Moraes won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:42

Model Prediction: Sergio Moraes wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Sergio Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Moraes at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sergio Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Ben Saunders enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Ben Saunders has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sergio Moraes
Red Corner
VS
Ben Saunders
Blue Corner
-275
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+235
(30%)
1378
Elo
1379
44
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
182.88 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergio MoraesL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Sep 17
W
vs Tim Means · Feb 18
L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19
L
KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19
L
KOvs James Krause · Nov 19
latest
Ben SaundersL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Alan Jouban · Feb 18
W
KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 18
L
KOvs Lyman Good · Nov 18
L
KOvs Takashi Sato · Apr 19
L
KOvs Matt Brown · Dec 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergio MoraesMetricBen Saunders
2.42
Strikes / min
3.23
3.73
Strikes absorbed / min
3.58
59%
Strike defense
51%
1.20
TDs / 15 min
0.20
75%
Takedown defense
66%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.31evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1586 vs 1508Strikes34.1 vs 27.7Takedowns0.8 vs 0.1Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.60Form0.5 vs 0.0
Sergio MoraesBen Saunders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Sergio Moraes(10 fights)Ben Saunders(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +118.0|Blue -118.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergio MoraesTargetBen Saunders

By target zone

2
67% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
1
100% acc · 100%
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
100% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
2
100% acc · 100%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Sergio Moraes rounds
0
even
0
Ben Saunders rounds
Round 1Sergio Moraes edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control3:58
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Sergio Moraes edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control4:06
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 3
Sig Strikes
1 / 2
75%
Sig Str %
50%
17 / 20
Total Strikes
55 / 56
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
8:04
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ben Saunders0 / 142 / 430 / 00
1Sergio Moraes1 / 23 / 51 / 11
2Ben Saunders1 / 113 / 130 / 00
2Sergio Moraes1 / 114 / 151 / 11

Sergio Moraes

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13

Ben Saunders

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights14