Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Evan Dunham has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Evan Dunham has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Evan DunhamL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18L
KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18L
SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20 Nik LentzL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18W
vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19L
KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19L
vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20L
vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Evan DunhamMetricNik Lentz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.79Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+0.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Evan DunhamNik Lentz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Evan Dunham(10 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -10.0|Blue +10.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Evan DunhamTargetNik Lentz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Evan Dunham edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns1
Control1:38
19Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:33Control
Round 2Evan Dunham edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns1
Control3:15
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:25Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
