Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Michael Johnson · Nov 16W
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19 Justin GaethjeW3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26W
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Khabib NurmagomedovMetricJustin Gaethje
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+2.35Δ 2.92 — meaningful gap-0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Khabib NurmagomedovJustin Gaethje
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -47.5|Blue +47.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.9|Blue +1.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +245.0|Blue -245.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Khabib NurmagomedovTargetJustin Gaethje
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds
Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control0:41
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control0:14
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
