← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Riki Fukuda won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1352

Riki FukudavsTom DeBlassUFC Prediction Result

UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · Saturday, November 10, 2012Macau, China

Official fight result

Riki Fukuda won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Riki Fukuda wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Riki Fukuda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Riki Fukuda at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Riki Fukuda has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Riki Fukuda has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Riki Fukuda (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Riki Fukuda

Red Corner

Tom DeBlass

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Riki FukudaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nick Ring · Feb 11

vs Steve Cantwell · Feb 12

DECvs Costas Philippou · Jul 12

vs Brad Tavares · Mar 13

latest

Tom DeBlass

oldest →

vs Cyrille Diabate · Apr 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Riki FukudaMetricTom DeBlass

4.24

Strikes / min

1.50

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

4.43

64%

Strike defense

37%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

1.00

70%

Takedown defense

28%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53Δ 3.46 — meaningful gap-2.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Riki FukudaTom DeBlass

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Riki Fukuda(5 fights)Tom DeBlass(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.4|Blue -138.4

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Riki FukudaTargetTom DeBlass

By target zone

34% acc · 41%

Head

27% acc · 59%

69% acc · 21%

Body

82% acc · 20%

89% acc · 38%

Leg

82% acc · 20%

By position

37% acc · 53%

Distance

32% acc · 80%

94% acc · 38%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Riki Fukuda rounds

even

Tom DeBlass rounds

Round 1Riki Fukuda edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control2:08

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Riki Fukuda edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control1:18

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Riki Fukuda edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control3:32

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

85 / 164

Sig Strikes

44 / 120

51.3%

Sig Str %

36.7%

229 / 325

Total Strikes

67 / 144

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:58

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tom DeBlass	14 / 35	14 / 35	0 / 0
1	Riki Fukuda	21 / 38	66 / 87	2 / 4
2	Tom DeBlass	17 / 48	27 / 58	0 / 0
2	Riki Fukuda	45 / 87	72 / 116	0 / 0
3	Tom DeBlass	13 / 37	26 / 51	0 / 0
3	Riki Fukuda	19 / 39	91 / 122	1 / 1

Riki Fukuda

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Tom DeBlass

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights2