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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Benson Henderson won · S-DEC R5

Elo1490

Elo1456

Benson HendersonvsJorge MasvidalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · Saturday, November 28, 2015Seoul, South Korea

Official fight result

Benson Henderson won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBenson Henderson: WrestlervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Benson Henderson wins(63.5%)

Actual result: Benson Henderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benson Henderson at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Benson Henderson (53.5%).
Jorge Masvidal has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Benson Henderson

Red Corner

Jorge Masvidal

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1490

Elo

1456

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Benson Henderson

oldest →

vs Josh Thomson · Jan 14

SUBvs Rustam Khabilov · Jun 14

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 14

vs Donald Cerrone · Jan 15

SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Feb 15

latest

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Benson HendersonMetricJorge Masvidal

2.93

Strikes / min

4.05

1.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

63%

Strike defense

64%

2.40

TDs / 15 min

1.38

63%

Takedown defense

72%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.14evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Benson HendersonJorge Masvidal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Benson Henderson(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.2|Blue -34.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +148.0|Blue -148.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Benson HendersonTargetJorge Masvidal

By target zone

48% acc · 49%

Head

34% acc · 49%

71% acc · 28%

Body

90% acc · 45%

80% acc · 23%

Leg

80% acc · 5%

By position

53% acc · 71%

Distance

43% acc · 66%

82% acc · 27%

Clinch

71% acc · 31%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Benson Henderson rounds

even

Jorge Masvidal rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:18

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control1:05

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 3Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:22

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 4Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:36

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:23Control

Round 5Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:30

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

86 / 146

Sig Strikes

77 / 156

58.6%

Sig Str %

51.8%

138 / 201

Total Strikes

217 / 309

3 / 12

TDs

1 / 5

14.6%

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

6:51

Ctrl Time

3:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jorge Masvidal	25 / 48	41 / 67	0 / 0	0
1	Benson Henderson	25 / 42	27 / 45	0 / 2	0
2	Jorge Masvidal	12 / 29	36 / 59	0 / 1	0
2	Benson Henderson	25 / 40	37 / 52	0 / 1	0
3	Jorge Masvidal	17 / 38	46 / 69	0 / 1	0
3	Benson Henderson	18 / 32	22 / 36	0 / 1	0
4	Benson Henderson	9 / 19	29 / 40	1 / 3	0
4	Jorge Masvidal	13 / 28	61 / 78	1 / 2	0
5	Jorge Masvidal	10 / 13	33 / 36	0 / 1	1
5	Benson Henderson	9 / 13	23 / 28	2 / 5	0

Benson Henderson

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22