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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Edwin Figueroa won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1353

Elo1351

Edwin FigueroavsJason ReinhardtUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · Sunday, August 14, 2011Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Edwin Figueroa won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:50

Model Prediction: Edwin Figueroa wins(72.8%)

Actual result: Edwin Figueroa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edwin Figueroa at -385 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edwin Figueroa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Edwin Figueroa is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jason Reinhardt has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Edwin Figueroa has a 12cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Edwin Figueroa

Red Corner

Jason Reinhardt

Blue Corner

-385

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+345

(22%)

1353

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

163 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edwin FigueroaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Michael McDonald · Mar 11

vs Alex Caceres · Feb 12

KOvs Francisco Rivera · Feb 13

vs Roland Delorme · Jun 13

vs Erik Perez · Nov 13

latest

Jason Reinhardt

oldest →

SUBvs Tiequan Zhang · Feb 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edwin FigueroaMetricJason Reinhardt

2.57

Strikes / min

0.51

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

51%

Strike defense

43%

0.20

TDs / 15 min

1.91

37%

Takedown defense

50%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 3.07 — meaningful gap-3.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edwin FigueroaJason Reinhardt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edwin Figueroa(6 fights)Jason Reinhardt(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edwin FigueroaTargetJason Reinhardt

By target zone

48% acc · 65%

Head

100% acc · 100%

100% acc · 22%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

31% acc · 17%

Distance

100% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

72% acc · 78%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edwin Figueroa rounds

even

Jason Reinhardt rounds

Round 1Edwin Figueroa edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:38

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:09Control

Round 2Edwin Figueroa edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:18

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 39

Sig Strikes

1 / 1

65.5%

Sig Str %

100%

46 / 66

Total Strikes

2 / 3

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 8

—

TD %

10%

Sub Att

Rev

1:56

Ctrl Time

1:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jason Reinhardt	1 / 1	2 / 3	1 / 5	0
1	Edwin Figueroa	15 / 29	29 / 47	0 / 0	1
2	Jason Reinhardt	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 3	0
2	Edwin Figueroa	8 / 10	17 / 19	0 / 0	0

Edwin Figueroa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Jason Reinhardt

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach—

Fights2