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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Rivera won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1353

Elo1358

Edwin FigueroavsFrancisco RiveraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · Saturday, February 2, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Francisco Rivera won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:20

Model Prediction: Francisco Rivera wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Francisco Rivera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Rivera at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Rivera enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francisco Rivera has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Francisco Rivera has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Edwin Figueroa

Red Corner

Francisco Rivera

Blue Corner

+275

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-305

(75%)

1353

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edwin FigueroaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Michael McDonald · Mar 11

KOvs Jason Reinhardt · Aug 11

vs Alex Caceres · Feb 12

vs Roland Delorme · Jun 13

vs Erik Perez · Nov 13

latest

Francisco RiveraL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 14

KOvs Alex Caceres · Jun 15

SUBvs John Lineker · Sep 15

vs Brad Pickett · Feb 16

vs Erik Perez · Jul 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edwin FigueroaMetricFrancisco Rivera

2.57

Strikes / min

4.07

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.16

51%

Strike defense

68%

0.20

TDs / 15 min

1.01

37%

Takedown defense

68%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edwin FigueroaFrancisco Rivera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edwin Figueroa(6 fights)Francisco Rivera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.0|Blue +5.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +101.0|Blue -101.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edwin FigueroaTargetFrancisco Rivera

By target zone

21% acc · 75%

Head

28% acc · 49%

50% acc · 17%

Body

67% acc · 16%

50% acc · 8%

Leg

69% acc · 35%

By position

21% acc · 79%

Distance

38% acc · 86%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

67% acc · 17%

Ground

56% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edwin Figueroa rounds

even

Francisco Rivera rounds

Round 1Francisco Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:34

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:06Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Francisco Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:33

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 97

Sig Strikes

51 / 127

24%

Sig Str %

40%

36 / 109

Total Strikes

54 / 131

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 2

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:07

Ctrl Time

1:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Francisco Rivera	24 / 63	27 / 67	2 / 2
1	Edwin Figueroa	15 / 55	17 / 57	0 / 0
2	Francisco Rivera	27 / 64	27 / 64	0 / 0
2	Edwin Figueroa	9 / 42	19 / 52	1 / 1

Edwin Figueroa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Francisco Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10