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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tony Ferguson won · SUB R2

Elo1480

Elo1485

Edson BarbozavsTony FergusonUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · Friday, December 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:54

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsTony Ferguson: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Ferguson at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Tony Ferguson

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1480

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricTony Ferguson

4.14

Strikes / min

4.91

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

4.37

55%

Strike defense

55%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.39

73%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaTony Ferguson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Tony Ferguson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.3|Blue +5.3

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -10.0|Blue +10.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetTony Ferguson

By target zone

38% acc · 49%

Head

44% acc · 69%

63% acc · 46%

Body

91% acc · 16%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

90% acc · 15%

By position

46% acc · 90%

Distance

45% acc · 74%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

80% acc · 10%

Ground

94% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Tony Ferguson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control1:21

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:36

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 85

Sig Strikes

61 / 116

45.5%

Sig Str %

54%

45 / 91

Total Strikes

69 / 127

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 2

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:57

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tony Ferguson	36 / 75	43 / 85	0 / 1	0
1	Edson Barboza	30 / 58	33 / 62	1 / 1	0
2	Tony Ferguson	25 / 41	26 / 42	0 / 1	1
2	Edson Barboza	11 / 27	12 / 29	1 / 2	0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24