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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Edson Barboza won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1480

Elo1352

Edson BarbozavsTerry EtimUFC Prediction Result

UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · Saturday, January 14, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:02

Model Prediction: Edson Barboza wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edson Barboza at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Terry Etim has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Edson Barboza has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Terry Etim

Blue Corner

-305

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1480

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Terry Etim

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Apr 10

SUBvs Edward Faaloloto · Nov 11

vs Renee Forte · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricTerry Etim

4.14

Strikes / min

2.16

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

55%

Strike defense

67%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.43

73%

Takedown defense

39%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaTerry Etim

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Terry Etim(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +127.8|Blue -127.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetTerry Etim

By target zone

23% acc · 30%

Head

16% acc · 58%

28% acc · 21%

Body

60% acc · 12%

72% acc · 49%

Leg

89% acc · 31%

By position

34% acc · 91%

Distance

23% acc · 92%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Terry Etim rounds

Round 1Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 129

Sig Strikes

26 / 105

34.3%

Sig Str %

25.7%

47 / 129

Total Strikes

26 / 105

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 6

—

TD %

27.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Terry Etim	9 / 37	9 / 37	1 / 3
1	Edson Barboza	18 / 45	18 / 45	0 / 0
2	Terry Etim	11 / 49	11 / 49	1 / 2
2	Edson Barboza	23 / 61	23 / 61	0 / 0
3	Terry Etim	6 / 19	6 / 19	0 / 1
3	Edson Barboza	6 / 23	6 / 23	0 / 0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Terry Etim

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4