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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Edson Barboza won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1480

Elo1353

Edson BarbozavsRafaello OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · Saturday, July 6, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:44

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsRafaello Oliveira: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Edson Barboza wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edson Barboza at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rafaello Oliveira has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Edson Barboza has 62pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Edson Barboza has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Rafaello Oliveira

Blue Corner

-600

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1480

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Rafaello Oliveira

oldest →

vs Andre Winner · Mar 10

SUBvs Gleison Tibau · May 11

KOvs Yves Edwards · Oct 11

vs Yoislandy Izquierdo · Jul 12

KOvs Erik Koch · Feb 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricRafaello Oliveira

4.14

Strikes / min

2.19

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

55%

Strike defense

59%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

2.49

73%

Takedown defense

11%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking-1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaRafaello Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Rafaello Oliveira(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +126.9|Blue -126.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetRafaello Oliveira

By target zone

23% acc · 18%

Head

39% acc · 68%

81% acc · 35%

Body

67% acc · 32%

82% acc · 47%

Leg

By position

55% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Rafaello Oliveira rounds

Round 1Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 89

Sig Strikes

19 / 42

59%

Sig Str %

44.5%

49 / 89

Total Strikes

19 / 42

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafaello Oliveira	15 / 33	15 / 33	0 / 4
1	Edson Barboza	37 / 71	37 / 71	0 / 0
2	Rafaello Oliveira	4 / 9	4 / 9	0 / 1
2	Edson Barboza	12 / 18	12 / 18	0 / 0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Rafaello Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6