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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Edson Barboza won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1392

Edson BarbozavsPaul FelderUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · Saturday, July 25, 2015Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsPaul Felder: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Paul Felder wins(70.5%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Felder at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Paul Felder

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1480

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Paul FelderL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Perry · Jul 18

vs James Vick · Feb 19

vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19

vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricPaul Felder

4.14

Strikes / min

3.70

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

55%

Strike defense

48%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.29

73%

Takedown defense

64%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaPaul Felder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Paul Felder(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +88.1|Blue -88.1

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetPaul Felder

By target zone

24% acc · 30%

Head

19% acc · 47%

76% acc · 34%

Body

60% acc · 19%

82% acc · 36%

Leg

76% acc · 34%

By position

47% acc · 100%

Distance

31% acc · 96%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Paul Felder rounds

Round 1Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 135

Sig Strikes

47 / 150

47.7%

Sig Str %

29.7%

64 / 135

Total Strikes

50 / 153

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paul Felder	14 / 50	14 / 50	0 / 0
1	Edson Barboza	21 / 45	21 / 45	0 / 0
2	Paul Felder	24 / 59	24 / 59	0 / 0
2	Edson Barboza	23 / 54	23 / 54	0 / 1
3	Paul Felder	9 / 41	12 / 44	0 / 1
3	Edson Barboza	20 / 36	20 / 36	0 / 0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Paul Felder

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15