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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Johnson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1502

Edson BarbozavsMichael JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · Sunday, February 22, 2015Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsMichael Johnson: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Michael Johnson wins(54.0%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Johnson at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Michael Johnson

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1480

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricMichael Johnson

4.14

Strikes / min

4.27

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

55%

Strike defense

58%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.57

73%

Takedown defense

81%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaMichael Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Michael Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.7|Blue +22.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -259.0|Blue +259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetMichael Johnson

By target zone

21% acc · 48%

Head

17% acc · 71%

64% acc · 52%

Body

21% acc · 11%

0% acc

Leg

64% acc · 18%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

20% acc · 95%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Michael Johnson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 3Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 98

Sig Strikes

38 / 187

31.3%

Sig Str %

20%

31 / 98

Total Strikes

43 / 192

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Johnson	14 / 73	14 / 73	0 / 0
1	Edson Barboza	13 / 33	13 / 33	0 / 1
2	Michael Johnson	14 / 60	16 / 62	0 / 0
2	Edson Barboza	7 / 33	7 / 33	0 / 1
3	Michael Johnson	10 / 54	13 / 57	1 / 1
3	Edson Barboza	11 / 32	11 / 32	0 / 0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32