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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Edson Barboza won · U-DEC

Elo1480

Elo1453

Edson BarbozavsMakwan AmirkhaniUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, October 10, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

U-DEC

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsMakwan Amirkhani: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Makwan Amirkhani wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Makwan Amirkhani at +225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Makwan Amirkhani (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Makwan Amirkhani

Blue Corner

-286

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1480

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Makwan AmirkhaniL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kamuela Kirk · Jun 21

KOvs Lerone Murphy · Oct 21

SUBvs Mike Grundy · Mar 22

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Jul 22

SUBvs Jack Shore · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricMakwan Amirkhani

4.14

Strikes / min

1.33

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

55%

Strike defense

46%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

3.96

73%

Takedown defense

35%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-1.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaMakwan Amirkhani

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Makwan Amirkhani(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.3|Blue -26.3

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetMakwan Amirkhani

By target zone

19% acc · 25%

Head

28% acc · 91%

78% acc · 56%

Body

33% acc · 9%

67% acc · 19%

Leg

By position

45% acc · 97%

Distance

28% acc · 91%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

25% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Makwan Amirkhani rounds

Round 1Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:03

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:35

Knockdowns2

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Makwan Amirkhani edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:51Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 74

Sig Strikes

11 / 39

42.7%

Sig Str %

28.7%

34 / 77

Total Strikes

25 / 59

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 6

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:38

Ctrl Time

3:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Makwan Amirkhani	4 / 13	6 / 16	1 / 2	0
1	Edson Barboza	13 / 31	15 / 33	0 / 0	0
2	Makwan Amirkhani	3 / 15	7 / 22	1 / 2	0
2	Edson Barboza	12 / 26	12 / 26	0 / 0	1
3	Makwan Amirkhani	4 / 11	12 / 21	1 / 2	0
3	Edson Barboza	7 / 17	7 / 18	0 / 0	0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Makwan Amirkhani

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14