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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Edson Barboza won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1480

Elo1490

Edson BarbozavsLucas MartinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping · Saturday, January 19, 2013Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:38

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsLucas Martins: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Edson Barboza wins(74.0%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edson Barboza at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Lucas Martins has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Lucas Martins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Lucas Martins

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1480

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Lucas Martins

oldest →

SUBvs Junior Hernandez · Sep 13

KOvs Alex White · Jul 14

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 14

KOvs Mirsad Bektic · May 15

DECvs Rob Whiteford · Apr 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricLucas Martins

4.14

Strikes / min

2.87

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

4.14

55%

Strike defense

60%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.00

73%

Takedown defense

76%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking-1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaLucas Martins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Lucas Martins(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.7|Blue +10.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -47.6|Blue +47.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetLucas Martins

By target zone

50% acc · 58%

Head

33% acc · 75%

60% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 17%

80% acc · 31%

Leg

50% acc · 8%

By position

56% acc · 77%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

Clinch

67% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Lucas Martins rounds

Round 1Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 45

Sig Strikes

12 / 31

57%

Sig Str %

38%

29 / 49

Total Strikes

12 / 31

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lucas Martins	12 / 31	12 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Edson Barboza	26 / 45	29 / 49	0 / 0	0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Lucas Martins

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7