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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Lerone Murphy won · U-DEC R5
Elo1480
Edson Barboza
Elo1534

Edson BarbozavsLerone MurphyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · Saturday, May 18, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Lerone Murphy won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsLerone Murphy: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Lerone Murphy wins(84.6%)

Actual result: Lerone Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lerone Murphy at -166 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Edson Barboza has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza
Red Corner
VS
Lerone Murphy
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-166
(62%)
1480
Elo
1534
40
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Bryce Mitchell · Mar 22
W
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23
W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23
L
vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25
L
KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25
latest
Lerone Murphy
oldest →
W
vs Josh Culibao · Jul 23
W
vs Dan Ige · Oct 24
W
vs Josh Emmett · Apr 25
W
KOvs Aaron Pico · Aug 25
L
vs Movsar Evloev · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricLerone Murphy
4.14
Strikes / min
4.34
4.68
Strikes absorbed / min
2.65
55%
Strike defense
60%
0.43
TDs / 15 min
1.20
73%
Takedown defense
44%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54Δ 2.23 — meaningful gap+1.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1586 vs 1579Strikes4.1 vs 5.0Takedowns0.5 vs 1.6Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.60Form0.7 vs 1.0
Edson BarbozaLerone Murphy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601485151015351560← oldermost recent →
Edson Barboza(10 fights)Lerone Murphy(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -54.1|Blue +54.1
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -84.0|Blue +84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetLerone Murphy

By target zone

38
20% acc · 48%
Head
172
56% acc · 78%
15
71% acc · 19%
Body
27
79% acc · 12%
26
81% acc · 33%
Leg
21
95% acc · 10%

By position

77
32% acc · 97%
Distance
205
60% acc · 93%
2
67% acc · 3%
Clinch
13
76% acc · 6%
0
Ground
2
67% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Edson Barboza rounds
0
even
5
Lerone Murphy rounds
Round 1Lerone Murphy edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 2Lerone Murphy edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
41Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:26Control
Round 3Lerone Murphy edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:17
48Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:25Control
Round 4Lerone Murphy edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
59Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:25Control
Round 5Lerone Murphy edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
38Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:49Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
79 / 242
Sig Strikes
220 / 364
32%
Sig Str %
60%
79 / 242
Total Strikes
259 / 410
0 / 0
TDs
4 / 6
—
TD %
77.7%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:17
Ctrl Time
5:19

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Lerone Murphy34 / 6238 / 660 / 00
1Edson Barboza25 / 5325 / 530 / 00
2Lerone Murphy41 / 7556 / 931 / 10
2Edson Barboza17 / 4417 / 440 / 00
3Lerone Murphy48 / 7952 / 861 / 30
3Edson Barboza11 / 4211 / 420 / 00
4Edson Barboza15 / 5615 / 560 / 00
4Lerone Murphy59 / 9365 / 990 / 00
5Lerone Murphy38 / 5548 / 662 / 20
5Edson Barboza11 / 4711 / 470 / 00

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights32

Lerone Murphy

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights10