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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Kevin Lee won · KO/TKO R5

Elo1480

Elo1466

Edson BarbozavsKevin LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · Saturday, April 21, 2018Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Lee won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 2:18

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsKevin Lee: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Edson Barboza wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edson Barboza at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Kevin Lee

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1480

Elo

1466

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Kevin LeeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricKevin Lee

4.14

Strikes / min

3.88

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

55%

Strike defense

50%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

3.18

73%

Takedown defense

75%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaKevin Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.8|Blue -13.8

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetKevin Lee

By target zone

36% acc · 51%

Head

138

58% acc · 97%

77% acc · 39%

Body

75% acc · 2%

71% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

46% acc · 92%

Distance

38% acc · 32%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

81% acc · 68%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Kevin Lee rounds

Round 1Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:18Control

Round 2Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:12Control

Round 3Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:10

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 4Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:33Control

Round 5Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 106

Sig Strikes

142 / 241

44%

Sig Str %

57.2%

64 / 119

Total Strikes

233 / 344

0 / 1

TDs

4 / 9

TD %

56.6%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

15:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kevin Lee	40 / 64	60 / 89	1 / 1
1	Edson Barboza	4 / 12	4 / 12	0 / 0
2	Kevin Lee	34 / 46	76 / 91	1 / 2
2	Edson Barboza	7 / 15	9 / 17	0 / 1
3	Kevin Lee	16 / 48	19 / 51	1 / 3
3	Edson Barboza	19 / 34	30 / 45	0 / 0
4	Edson Barboza	5 / 15	5 / 15	0 / 0
4	Kevin Lee	38 / 56	64 / 86	1 / 1
5	Kevin Lee	14 / 27	14 / 27	0 / 2
5	Edson Barboza	16 / 30	16 / 30	0 / 0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19