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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Justin Gaethje won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1480

Elo1541

Edson BarbozavsJustin GaethjeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Saturday, March 30, 2019Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Justin Gaethje won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:30

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Gaethje at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Edson Barboza is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Edson Barboza has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Justin Gaethje

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1480

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Justin GaethjeW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23

KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25

vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricJustin Gaethje

4.14

Strikes / min

6.48

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

7.05

55%

Strike defense

51%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.33

73%

Takedown defense

74%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaJustin Gaethje

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -60.8|Blue +60.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -2.7|Blue +2.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetJustin Gaethje

By target zone

29% acc · 46%

Head

46% acc · 65%

60% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 10%

67% acc · 31%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

37% acc · 85%

Distance

55% acc · 60%

100% acc · 15%

Clinch

62% acc · 40%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Justin Gaethje rounds

Round 1Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 32

Sig Strikes

20 / 35

40%

Sig Str %

57%

13 / 32

Total Strikes

22 / 37

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Gaethje	20 / 35	22 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Edson Barboza	13 / 32	13 / 32	0 / 0	0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15