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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jamie Varner won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1480

Elo1354

Edson BarbozavsJamie VarnerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · Saturday, May 26, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jamie Varner won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:23

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsJamie Varner: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Edson Barboza wins(63.8%)

Actual result: Jamie Varner wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edson Barboza at -540 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Jamie Varner

Blue Corner

-540

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+460

(18%)

1480

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Jamie VarnerL4 streak

oldest →

vs Melvin Guillard · Dec 12

vs Gleison Tibau · Aug 13

KOvs Abel Trujillo · Feb 14

KOvs James Krause · May 14

SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricJamie Varner

4.14

Strikes / min

2.92

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

55%

Strike defense

58%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

3.49

73%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaJamie Varner

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Jamie Varner(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +125.8|Blue -125.8

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -47.8|Blue +47.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetJamie Varner

By target zone

17% acc · 9%

Head

53% acc · 85%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 15%

100% acc · 91%

Leg

By position

65% acc · 100%

Distance

61% acc · 55%

Clinch

Ground

53% acc · 45%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Jamie Varner rounds

Round 1Jamie Varner edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:09Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 17

Sig Strikes

20 / 35

64%

Sig Str %

57%

11 / 17

Total Strikes

33 / 57

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jamie Varner	20 / 35	33 / 57	2 / 2	0
1	Edson Barboza	11 / 17	11 / 17	0 / 0	0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Jamie Varner

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7