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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jalin Turner won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1480

Elo1507

Edson BarbozavsJalin TurnerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Saturday, December 6, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jalin Turner won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:24

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsJalin Turner: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jalin Turner wins(78.5%)

Actual result: Jalin Turner wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jalin Turner at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jalin Turner (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Jalin Turner

Blue Corner

+360

(22%)

Vegas Odds

-460

(82%)

1480

Elo

1507

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Bryce Mitchell · Mar 22

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

latest

Jalin TurnerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 23

vs Dan Hooker · Jul 23

KOvs King Green · Dec 23

KOvs Renato Moicano · Apr 24

SUBvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricJalin Turner

4.14

Strikes / min

5.79

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

4.54

55%

Strike defense

41%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.75

73%

Takedown defense

75%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.79 — meaningful gap+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaJalin Turner

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Jalin Turner(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.1|Blue +27.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -161.0|Blue +161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetJalin Turner

By target zone

29% acc · 40%

Head

53% acc · 74%

100% acc · 40%

Body

89% acc · 21%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

53% acc · 100%

Distance

62% acc · 85%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 13%

Ground

33% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Jalin Turner rounds

Round 1Jalin Turner edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns0

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 20

Sig Strikes

39 / 66

50%

Sig Str %

59%

10 / 20

Total Strikes

43 / 73

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jalin Turner	39 / 66	43 / 73	0 / 0	0
1	Edson Barboza	10 / 20	10 / 20	0 / 0	0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Jalin Turner

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14