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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Edson Barboza won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1374

Edson BarbozavsGilbert MelendezUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · Saturday, July 23, 2016Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsGilbert Melendez: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Gilbert Melendez wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Melendez at +215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gilbert Melendez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Gilbert Melendez

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1480

Elo

1374

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Gilbert MelendezL4 streak

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · Oct 13

SUBvs Anthony Pettis · Dec 14

vs Eddie Alvarez · Jun 15

vs Jeremy Stephens · Sep 17

vs Arnold Allen · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricGilbert Melendez

4.14

Strikes / min

3.44

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

55%

Strike defense

63%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.64

73%

Takedown defense

71%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaGilbert Melendez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Gilbert Melendez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +105.6|Blue -105.6

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -315.0|Blue +315.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetGilbert Melendez

By target zone

27% acc · 41%

Head

29% acc · 90%

45% acc · 18%

Body

43% acc · 8%

77% acc · 41%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

41% acc · 93%

Distance

29% acc · 92%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

44% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Gilbert Melendez rounds

Round 1Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:39

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 136

Sig Strikes

39 / 129

42%

Sig Str %

30.3%

63 / 144

Total Strikes

42 / 135

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 5

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:39

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gilbert Melendez	10 / 49	10 / 49	0 / 2
1	Edson Barboza	21 / 41	21 / 41	0 / 0
2	Gilbert Melendez	15 / 41	18 / 47	0 / 2
2	Edson Barboza	17 / 55	24 / 63	1 / 1
3	Gilbert Melendez	14 / 39	14 / 39	0 / 1
3	Edson Barboza	18 / 40	18 / 40	0 / 0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Gilbert Melendez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7